The 2012 GOP Iowa caucus is about to begin – it's all over bar the caucusing. And then the shouting. We will be bringing live results, analysis and speculation as they occur. How will the top three ofMitt Romney, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul finish? Does Rick Perry have a Texas Surprise under his big hat? Can Newt Gingrich's share of the vote match his sense of self satisfaction? And how many hours will elapse between the final result and Michele Bachmann's exit speech?
We will know the answers to all these questions and others in the coming hours. The caucuses themselves start at 8pm ET (1am GMT), and based on 2008 we should have the result by 11pm ET, or even earlier.
And don't forget that the Democratic party is also caucusing. It wn't be anything like 2008 of course but it's worth remembering that theRepublicans are not the only show in town.
The Guardian has correspondents in Iowa and New Hampshire, watching the results and talking to voters. And we have a raft of comment from the inestimable Ana Marie Cox.
And we want comments from you, the reader, right here. We'll be reading them all and passing the best jokes off as our own.
Read our earlier live coverage from today's campaigning in Iowa.
What are the five things to look for in tonights Iowa GOP caucus results?
1. The winners: Obviously, who finishes first is important. For an insurgent challenger such as Rick Santorum it's vital – no one remembers the second place finisher. Who finished second in 2008? Mitt Romney. Now, it's true that winning in 2008 didn't exactly make Mike Huckabee the nominee but without that "winner" title Huckabee would have faded into obscurity.
2. The losers: As they say, it's not the taking part that counts, it's the losing. Sixth place finish is almost certainly a ticket home – and that's most likely to be Michele Bachmann. But what about the fourth and fifth places? There's losing and there's losing: third place by a whisker and third by a mile can make the difference between going to New Hampshire or becoming a Fox News studio guest.
3. Turn-out: How many Iowans made it to the caucuses after all the hoopla? For the Republicans the benchmark is the 118,400 in 2008 – a figure that paled alongside the Democrats total of 227,000. That has implications for the general election.
4. Republican base: The make-up of the Republican voters will tell an interesting story, particularly for the fortunes of Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, both of whom need to expand their support outside their natural base of traditional Republicans (for Romney) and social conservatives (for Santorum).
5. Democrats: The Democratic party is also caucusing tonight, although there is no such drama, Barack Obama being unopposed other than by sundry unknowns. But the party is using the night as an exercise in motivating and turning out its base in Iowa.
That's it – Rick Santorum's campaign is obviously in trouble. He's dropped the sweater-vest at the 11th hour, reports Scott Conroy of RealClearPolitics.
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